Global temperature change
- James Hansen*,†,‡,
- Makiko Sato*,†,
- Reto Ruedy*,§,
- Ken Lo*,§,
- David W. Lea¶, and
- Martin Medina-Elizade¶
- *National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
- †Columbia University Earth Institute, and
- §Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025; and
- ¶Department of Earth Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
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Contributed by James Hansen, July 31, 2006
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Fig. 1.Surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951–1980 from surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and satellite SST measurements. (A) Global annual mean anomalies. (B) Temperature anomaly for the first half decade of the 21st century.
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Fig. 2.Global surface temperature computed for scenarios A, B, and C (12), compared with two analyses of observational data. The 0.5°C and 1°C temperature levels, relative to 1951–1980, were estimated (12) to be maximum global temperatures in the Holocene and the prior interglacial period, respectively.
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Fig. 3.Comparison of SST in West and East Equatorial Pacific Ocean. (A) SST in 2001–2005 relative to 1870–1900, from concatenation of two data sets (5, 6), as described in the text. (B) SSTs (12-month running means) in WEP and EEP relative to 1870–1900 means.
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Fig. 4.Comparison of modern surface temperature measurements with paleoclimate proxy data in the WEP (28) (A), EEP (3, 30, 31) (B), Indian Ocean (40) (C), and Vostok Antarctica (41) (D).
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Fig. 5.Modern sea surface temperatures (5, 6) in the WEP compared with paleoclimate proxy data (28). Modern data are the 5-year running mean, while the paleoclimate data has a resolution of the order of 1,000 years.
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Fig. 6.Poleward migration rate of isotherms in surface observations (A and B) and in climate model simulations (17) for 2000–2100 for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A2 (10) and an alternative scenario of forcings that keeps global warming after 2000 less than 1°C (17) (C and D). Numbers in upper right are global means excluding the tropical band.
Footnotes
- ‡To whom correspondence should be addressed: E-mail: jhansen{at}giss.nasa.gov
- © 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
